Real Estate Reports by Beth Robertson

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Trends at a Glance

	Aug 2016		Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Home Price	+3.1%	$590,000	$572,500	+9.4%	$539,250
Average Sales Price	+9.0%	$733,303	$672,780	+4.9%	$699,193
No. of Homes Sold	+2.8%	440	428	-4.8%	462
Pending Properties	-16.2%	124	148	-0.8%	125
Foreclosures Sold	-50.0%	7	14	+40.0%	5
Short Sales Sold	N/A	0	0	N/A	0
Active Listings	-3.9%	846	880	-11.0%	951
Active Foreclosures	0.0%	13	13	-35.0%	20
Active Short Sales	N/A	0	0	N/A	0
Sales Price vs. List Price	-0.9%	99.3%	100.2%	-1.1%	100.4%
Average Days on Market	-0.7%	72	73	+3.6%	70

Market MomentumEnlarge Graph

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Market Report Commentary

The median price for single-family, re-sales homes was up for the fiftieth month in a row in August from the year before in Sonoma County. Home sales, on the other hand, were down for the fifth month in a...

Mortgage Rate Outlook

Softer Data, Softer Fed Stance? Maybe. September 2, 2016 -- There wasn't a great probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its September meeting, but the freshest economic data may have diminished...

Sonoma County Stats At A Glance

Year-Over-Year Median home prices increased by 9.4% year-over-year to $590,000 from $539,250. The average home sales price rose by 4.9% year-over-year to $733,303 from $699,193. Home sales fell by 4.8%...

Prices & SalesEnlarge Graph

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Sales BreakdownEnlarge Graph

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Days of InventoryEnlarge Graph

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Sales To DateEnlarge Graph

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Sale Price RatioEnlarge Graph

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Mortgage Rate Outlook

Softer Data, Softer Fed Stance? Maybe.

September 2, 2016 -- There wasn't a great probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its September meeting, but the freshest economic data may have diminished those odds somewhat.

As we enter the final month of the third quarter, it would seem the economic momentum that showed itself in the first half of the period has tailed off, leaving behind a less-than-clear outlook as to when short-term interest rates will be raised. Despite the Fed's hopes, the economy continues to plod along, but never seeming to sustain one trend or the other long enough as to require action in one form or another.

That said, the economy does seem strong enough as to not be able to completely remove the prospect for a near-term rate hike, nor weak enough as to completely rule it out, either. Futures markets now put the chance of a hike at about one in five, down from about one in three in recent days.

What does this mean for mortgage rates? Most probably, a continuation of the very flat summer pattern for a while longer. Without a quickly moving economy, the Fed may prefer to wait for a longer accumulation of modest news before pulling the trigger.

HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased by two basis points (0.02%), rising to 3.58%. The FRMI's 15-year companion barely moved as well but rose by one basis point, ticking up to an average of 2.98%. Popular with first-time homebuyers, rates on fully-insured FHA-backed 30-year FRMs remain a little below their Fannie and Freddie counterparts but also featured a small rise, climbing by one basis point to land at 3.41%. Lastly, the overall 5/1 Hybrid ARM rose a bit more than did the other products, adding four basis points, stopping at 2.93% on average for the week.

Given all the above, and with more August data still to come, we're not yet convinced that the Fed will remain on the sidelines this month. It's a well-established tenet that the Fed prefers not to make a move on the cusp of a presidential election, so if not September, they would need to wait until December. That being the case, how would markets react if August's modest employment gains prove temporary, and the Fed sits idly by while hiring or inflation measures for September, October and November all come in above expectations? This could see the Fed need to make a more aggressive move in raising rates, and that would go against the expectations for a modest, long-running upward trend for policy tightening. It's not quite a box the Fed is in, but we may be at a bit of a pinch point of sorts for them.

Market MomentumEnlarge Graph

Market Report Commentary

Prices & SalesEnlarge Graph

Sales BreakdownEnlarge Graph

Days of InventoryEnlarge Graph

Sales To DateEnlarge Graph

Sale Price RatioEnlarge Graph

August Sales Statistics

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

CONDOMINIUMS

Mortgage Rate Outlook

Softer Data, Softer Fed Stance? Maybe.

Sonoma County Stats At A Glance

Year-Over-Year

Compared To Last Month

Market Report Commentary

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August Sales Statistics

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

CONDOMINIUMS

Mortgage Rate Outlook

Softer Data, Softer Fed Stance? Maybe.

Sonoma County Stats At A Glance

Year-Over-Year

Compared To Last Month